Labour’s Ambitious Housing Targets. Are we on Track?

Delivering 1.5 million homes in England by 2030 remains one of the Government’s more ambitious targets, yet current progress suggests a long road ahead. While the focus has largely been on boosting supply through planning reform, the deeper challenge lies in demand understanding where buyers actually are and what’s holding them back. As the Savills research “Delivering 1.5 Million Homes in England” outlines, it’s not just a question of how many homes can be built, but where and for whom.

Over the last three years, housing delivery in England has averaged just under 230,000 new homes annually, leaving an annual shortfall of around 70,000 against government ambitions. That gap is widening as affordability pressures and high mortgage costs temper buyer confidence. But regional differences tell a more nuanced story. The greatest slowdown in transactions has been in London and the South East, while areas such as the North West, Yorkshire and Humber, and the West Midlands have demonstrated more resilience and, crucially, greater capacity for absorption of new housing.

Savills’ analysis highlights that first-time buyer activity has declined sharply in the capital and commuter belt, where the average house price-to-income ratio stands at over 13:1. In contrast, the North West and similar regions sit closer to 8:1, meaning buyers face lower barriers to entry. The result has been higher sales rates on new developments and faster build-out rates on greenfield sites. Simply put, homes are selling more readily where people can afford them.

This affordability advantage is likely to deepen the North West’s appeal for both developers and investors. With planning reform providing more opportunities for housing delivery, builders are most likely to increase output where they see sustainable demand. The region’s economic trajectory bolstered by city growth in Manchester, Liverpool and Preston, and by strong infrastructure links adds another layer of stability. It is no coincidence that institutional investors are increasingly targeting northern living sectors, with Savills’ 2025 European Investor Living Survey noting that nearly two-thirds of UK investors plan to increase allocations to multifamily and single-family rental housing.

Of course, policy will still matter. The Financial Conduct Authority’s recent signal that it may relax mortgage affordability rules could unlock further demand among first-time buyers, particularly in areas where house prices remain within reach. Yet, to deliver at scale, a modern equivalent to Help to Buy targeted at affordable regions rather than blanket national coverage may be required to bridge the gap between aspiration and action.

The housing market’s future growth, then, may not hinge on whether England builds more homes, but where those homes are built. The North West, with its relative affordability, strong rental appetite, and steady economic growth, presents a market both resilient enough to weather volatility and dynamic enough to drive the next phase of housing delivery. For investors and policymakers alike, it increasingly looks like the logical place to build.